At this late stage in the Cup, it is surprising to see so few all-Premier League ties.
With 16 teams left in the competition, the fifth round of the FA Cup this weekend contains just two such matches. Spread bettors to have bought Manchester United’s outright index spread watched in disbelief as their team fell at the first hurdle to Division One side Leeds United, while Liverpool – and their spread buyers – suffered a similar fate to Championship strugglers Reading.
Unsurprisingly with their home draw against Cardiff, Chelsea are clear favourites on the index with a spread of 62-65pts (100pts to the winner, 70pts to runner-up, 50pts to losing semi-finalist etc). We are guaranteed at least one non-top flight side in the quarter finals and buyers of Reading’s spread at 31 hope they can continue their cup run, which has also included victory over Burnley, by beating West Brom at the Madesjki.
After a shaky first match at White Hart Lane, Tottenham Hotspur duly despatched Leeds in a replay at Elland Road – as buyers of hat trick hero Jermain Defoe’s goal minutes spread remember better than most. The spread market made-up 200 minutes. Spurs feature in one of these all-Premier League ties, away to Bolton Wanderers on Sunday. Spread punters have a wealth of head-to-head results to look at as the Trotters have spent an unbroken nine years in the Premier League but buyers and sellers of the total goals spread might prefer to focus on the sides’ cup meetings. They have met in such circumstances four times since the nineties and, crucially for sellers of Bolton’s win index, Spurs have won three times to Bolton’s once. On each occasion spread punters would have been much better to buy match goals, with four, four, six and seven goals scored in normal time.
In the last knockout meeting, in the League Cup in October 2004, a further three goals were scored after extra time. Spread punters eyeing up Defoe’s performance or goal minutes spreads should note he scored twice in the game.
The other all-Prem affair will take place a day earlier and a few miles down the road as Manchester City host Stoke. There have been five FA Cup meetings between the sides over the years with the Blues taking honours three times to the Potters’ two although this will mean little to spread bettors as the last meeting was 35 years ago. Punters to have bought Stoke’s outright index, currently at 27pts, have seen them come through a tough tie against Arsenal and sellers of Man City’s supremacy will have little doubt that Stoke can again frustrate formidable opponents.
Their opinion would be in contrast to that of Sporting Index’s traders who have set both Man City’s supremacy high here and installed Roberto Mancini’s side as second favourites on the outright FA Cup spreads at 48-51pts. Spread punters who fancy buying or selling on any of the player markets could do worse than to look at Ricardo Fuller’s performance spread, should he be lined up to start. He seems to flourish on the thrill of a cup tie and has scored three in the last two rounds.