After England’s disappointing defeat to the Australians last week, Martin Johnson’s side have a chance to redeem themselves against the Pumas of Argentina.
Although sellers of Australia’s supremacy spread did not profit, spread bettors will have taken much guidance from England’s opening autumn fixture. Spread sellers of England’s tries against Argentina will be concerned about the host team’s lack of creativity and inability to breach the Wallabies try line, but they will also be aware that Argentina are unlikely to match the resistance of the Aussies.
This particular fixture holds plenty of interest, as any spread bettors to have bought Argentina’s win index three years ago, almost to the day, will confirm. On the 11th November 2006, the Pumas, led by scrum-half Agustin Pichot, embarrassed the then World Cup holders with a 25-18 victory at Twickenham to the dismay of buyers of England’s supremacy spread. The defeat ultimately cost coach Andy Robinson his job. Spread bettors on this occasion will not be too worried by that result, knowing that few players remain from that trough in England’s professional rugby union history. A wider view of head-to-head clashes shows that England have won ten of 15 meetings overall including four of six in the last ten years. Argentina have however won two of the last three, including the last match in Salta, in June.
After a fantastic showing in the 2007 World Cup where they claimed third place, the Pumas’ subsequent results will encourage buyers of England’s win index spread. Other than their recent win over England, they’ve won only three times since, and can hardly be proud of beating Scotland in Rosario or Italy in Rome.
We’ve mentioned that England’s lack of try-scoring opportunities last weekend might concern buyers of the side’s points spread or total match points, but a glimpse at previous scores is more likely to encourage spread buyers than sellers. Going back to 2002 an average 49.2 points were scored in the five matches between the countries, with a low of 43. Buyers of the match tries spread might therefore expect a similarly impressive number of touchdowns and may decide to re-evaluate their decision in the knowledge that three tries have been scored in each of the last three England/Argentina clashes.
In light of a number of high-scoring head-to-heads, if anything will persuade spread bettors to sell points it is likely to be the number of high profile names on each team’s injury lists. Sellers of Argentina’s kicking metres spread will note that the ‘magician’ Juan Martin Hernandez and influential back and penalty-kicker Felipe Contepomi are both absent from the tour party. Jonny Wilkinson looked impressive last weekend, and the fact that he scored all of England’s points against the Wallabies won’t have been lost on buyers of his performance spreads. In contrast to the tour party’s equivalent spread market, buyers of England’s kicking metres spread will outnumber sellers, thanks to Wilko’s contribution to an 82metre make-up in a match where goal-kicking opportunities were few.