The Racing Post Chase is one of the final big races for spread bettors to get stuck into before the onslaught of the Cheltenham Festival and this year’s renewal looks like a particularly good one.
Nacarat absolutely routed his opposition 12 months ago, bringing back memories of the great Desert Orchid, and he will be attempting to claim back-to-back Racing Posts for the first time since Docklands Express in 1992. He will more than likely be at the top of the Sporting Index win index and the fact that he has to carry a minimum of 11st 8lbs shouldn’t necessarily be a negative for those looking to get with him on the spreads.
Put simply, the best horses do the best in this race – at least they have done in recent years. In the last 10 runnings, only two winners have carried less than 11stone and one of those was Nacarat last year when only just scraping under that mark with 10st13lbs. Many horse racing spread betting punters adopt a statistical approach and therefore will be following those at the top of the weights. Madison Du Berlais is set to be burdened with top weight of 11st12lbs, but four of those have been successful in the past decade, including Gungadu two years ago. David Pipe’s runner, if taking his place in the line-up, is a much better horse on a flat track, so there will be a number of spread bettors looking to buy him in match bets and on the outright index.
Although the best horses have been winning in recent years, that isn’t to say that they have always been favourites with the punters. In fact, only three jollies have been successful in the past 10 renewals and just one since 2004. Those spread punters immediately thinking that they should buy SPs should be careful though as Nacarat was the first double-figure priced winner at 10/1 during that time. All of the other nine victors have been sent off between 10/3 and 9/1.
There have been a few tight finishes over the years, but generally winning distance buyers on the spreads have come out on top recently. Nacarat was a comfortable nine-length winner last season and it could have been much more than that if Tony McCoy had wanted. Simon was another to win comfortably in 2007 by 10 lengths, a feat that matched the tragic Gloria Victis’ romp in 2000. However, the best year for spread buyers was 2002 when Gunther McBride slaughtered the field to win by 17 lengths. That gave Richard Johnson his third straight Racing Post Chase and he went on to win a fourth in 2005 on Farmer Jack.
We’ve already seen how the top horses do the best in this race, but for those spread punters who like to play the jockey index markets they will be interested to learn that the cream also rises to the top when it comes to the riders. In the past 10 years, Tony McCoy (two wins), Ruby Walsh (two wins) and Richard Johnson (four wins) have won 80% of the Racing Post Chases, with only Warren Marston and Andrew Thornton also getting in on the act.