After what always feels like an eternity, the Champions League break is almost over and spread bettors can start preparing for one of the most eagerly anticipated knockout stages in several years.
Spread punters will be especially looking forward to the Anglo-Italian battles and recent history will point towards further English dominance. Buyers of United’s outright spread currently at 37-40pts (winner earns 100pts, runner-up 75pts, losing semi-finalist 50pts etc), will be pleased to know that over the last two years English teams have had the better of the two-legged games against Italian teams. Wednesday’s game sees Arsenal presented with a tough game against Porto, a side that beat them 2-0 in last season’s group stages.
Buyers of Milan’s outright tournament index spread at 24, will know that they have beaten United on their four previous visits. Furthermore, Milan have come out on top each time the clubs have met over two legs in Europe’s premier competition. The Rossoneri recorded two 1-0 victories in their meeting in 2004/05, with Hernan Crespo scoring both. Spread sellers of the Man Utd / AC Milan qualifying match bet at 4pts (10pts for qualifying, 3pts per goal won by) will also remember the two-legged win in 2007 over United.
United’s win index spread buyers will be aware that since their 3-0 loss at the San Siro in 2007 United have not lost in three trips to Italy - including a goalless draw on the way to knocking-out Jose Mourinho’s Inter in last season’s first knockout round. The same spread buyers will also argue that Milan’s home form in the group stages was far from impressive. The Rossoneri failed to pick up a win in any of their three home games, including a loss to FC Zurich. Another concern for buyers of Milan’s supremacy spread will be that they did not manage a win in their last three Champions League matches. Sellers of the supremacy spread will have been encouraged with United’s results away from Old Trafford – seeing as they have not lost an away tie in the Champions League since the 2007 season.
Spread punters that fancy the Gunners’ chances at Porto will have noted that the Portuguese side have lost their last two home games against English opponents. Buyers of the Gunner’s outright Championship index spread, currently at 37-40pts, will have also taken into account that the last two times the sides met it was 0-0 in Porto and 2-0 to Arsenal in North London. Before United’s 1-0 victory last season and Chelsea’s 1-0 victory in November, Porto had won their previous eleven games against English sides. Those who enjoy a spread bet on the total goals market should note that Porto conceded just three in the group stages, the fewest in their group, while Arsenal only conceded five. A positive for goal spread buyers is that Arsenal’s 4-0 victory is Porto’s joint-heaviest defeat in the competition to date.
Before the Gunners played Porto, they had faced Portuguese opposition only once before in Europe. Punters hoping to challenge Arsenal on the spreads will be pleased to learn they lost to Benfica in the 1991/92 the European Champion Clubs’ Cup. Arsenal have not caused referees too much trouble during the groups stages and sellers of the bookings index spread will be pleased to see that they only picked up eight yellows from their six group games.